blackjack, the math.

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blackjack, the math.

for the beginning of the story read the first article ..

https://old.rip/2024/09/13/21-blackjack/

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[ last updated 240918 ]

reading further it’s important to remember, as i mentioned in the first article on the topic, that i may be wrong. my strategy of blackjack is not tested in practice. i’m making assumptions based on my experience on researching random fluctuations for decades, on computers, but i may be wrong because i’m completely new to the game of blackjack and i may be missing the point on some important variable of the game.

since i played blackjack first time in my life in casino, last week, i have watched perhaps around 30 videos on the topic which showed up on my searches. i have given it a thought from time to time, couple of hours a day perhaps. so, in the logic that i was able to see in the game, i came up with only three rules i need to follow, to minimize the table edge enough and not to crowd my brain with too much information with insignificant effect.

yesterday i finally downloaded and had a look at a chart of the basic blackjack strategy, from the most realistically sounding source — chosen by the videos which i had studied the rules from, and learned about some of the basic principles. watching the chart, in less than 60 seconds i realized that i was right — the whole chart can be boiled down to three rules only, by my personal logic. meanwhile, two of the rules can be related to the chart of the basic strategy, and are given also by other similar pro opinions, while the third rule is contrary to the teaching by this source. they say you should not do it, but by my logic you should. in my opinion, by calculating some specific odds of the table edge, they forgot to include the odds from the bigger picture — otherwise those odds that they claim are simply impossible. the contrary rule to the common teachings is also advised by some pro gamblers, while most of the pros say it’s a bad decision.. so, even between the pros there isn’t a complete agreement. i’m not inventing a wheel here – i take the advice of others which make the most mathematical sense. i boil it all down to a few basic rules which have the biggest impact in the game on reducing the table edge, while ignoring the noise — the rules which have too little value, even if they are correct in principle. too many rules to follow introduces more possibilities for an error, so the overall effect will be negative if you try to count with every miniscule opportunity to reduce the table edge even more, in a long run. after all, it would only matter to someone playing blackjack every day for long hours and for many years. i can hardly believe that someone playing so much blackjack makes no errors, thus the more complex system will not generate a better outcome in real life, only perhaps in a mathematically precise and correct simulation.

time to test out in real life who is right in their logic and math of blackjack. it doesn’t mean that i’ll be sitting in casino every day now, to verify my method. i prefer to have a good time there, and enough breathing space to meditate on more important things. if the environment and the strategy would require too much attention then it would be a waste of life spending time on the game. but if i can make some extra cash while having good time, in mind “working” on other things, then i can be in casino as well from time to time.

i cannot verify my personal method online, or with free apps, because i don’t know which automated programs i can trust. the time needed to write my own programs for this purpose doesn’t exist at this point — it will take a long time to make sure with countless tests, that your own quickly written program has no hidden errors either in logic or in code. i have other things to do which are vital in importance, thus a priority. but to test out my own strategy in real life, while having time off for fun sometimes, that i can do.

the graphs provided by the card counting teams show clearly that they have periods of losses of several months in lengths, while betting huge sums. with my method i can always stay quite low in bets and still make money regularly, with negative periods perhaps only a week in length as a realistic maximum, which is unavoidable in any casino game. my method doesn’t include counting cards, and even doesn’t depend on the open card of the dealer.

if someone believes that a single card of the dealer changes the probabilities of the total sum by the following cards, compared to the probabilities of a total outcome after different open cards of dealers, and you should act according to that, has no idea about how random distribution works. even while the amount of cards is limited in the game, the tilt towards a specific outcome depending on the card of the dealer is so small, that it will only have some measurable impact if you play the game every day for whole life. nevertheless, there are certain rules — the three rules which i have chosen for myself — which do have a measurable impact on the game even in a few hours of play.

one more thing — apart of the basic strategy with the three rules only, which i selected to reduce table edge, i also need to use the change in amount of betting. not much change in the betting amount is needed, but it must be done in very specific, mathematically justified conditions. i must rely on my experience on the research of random fluctuations. in the blackjack case though, i will not be dealing with true randomness, and that’s a good thing — it will limit the length of possible losing periods by several orders of magnitude.. to maximum a week only, as noted before.

for comparison, on roulette, due to a large house edge — even if in theory with some very sophisticated strategy you can in the end recover losses and start from the beginning — the losing periods can last up to a year in extreme cases, while playing every day for 7-8 hours — this is what my computer simulations, with my own automated programs, have shown over and over again. it makes the roulette absolutely impractical as a place to apply money making strategies. you should add to it a mathematical fact, that even if in a perfectly honest casino a crooked dealer happens to be present at your game only once in a while, even rarely, it will eliminate all your mathematical skill in trying to earn back long lasting losses. therefore, winning on roulette is only possible sometimes, as a pure luck, but never with any permanent strategy.

blackjack could be different — in theory it is harder for dealers to regularly cheat on blackjack.. unless casinos will begin implementing digital cards which can change their value — the same type of cards which some magicians are already successfully using for years.

so, you have read this far and wonder what are the three rules which i would follow, when playing blackjack? i would tell, but these rules only reduce the table edge, not making you a winner in a long run. you need a correct understanding of random fluctuations, to know in which conditions to increase your bets, and when to stop increasing your bets, to overcome the table edge. one condition is this: whenever your personal balance, after long losses, arrives back at your last maximum personal balance, you must go back to your minimum betting, no matter what the probabilities of the cards are showing. if you think i can be of any help to you, or if you want to have a good time in a casino together, let me know..

CONTACT

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you can read about random fluctuations in the free book, which i wrote after decades of computer simulations ..

[ click for the direct download to your device ]

https://old.rip/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/randomfluct2018freeshare-1.pdf

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all my free books ..

https://old.rip/2024/03/23/my-books-free-download-repost/

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https://old.rip/2024/03/23/my-books-free-download-repost/

https://old.rip/2023/11/03/my-books-free-download/

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https://old.rip/2023/04/28/my-music-test/

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