21, blackjack.

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21, blackjack.

[ last updated 240914 ]

on september 10th 2024 i played blackjack in casino, first time in life. when i was child we often played cards with other kids, and there was always a fight on disagreements, so at one point i stopped playing card games. since then i have never even watched others play — simply lost interest after so many conflicts the card games created. i haven’t played any card games since i was around 10 or 15 years old – can’t remember exactly — which makes around 40 years of no card games as i’m 53 now. but i do have played roulette in casinos, a lot. and i even wrote a book on random fluctuations, including there my findings about roulette and stock market, as i’ve been analysing the random outcomes on computers for decades.

so, few days ago i tried first time the “21” in casino, having good time with other players who explained me the rules. the only thing i knew about this game was that it’s possible to beat it but you’re not allowed to count cards — legally perhaps you’re allowed to do that in your mind but you will get banned.

well, since that day when i first played 21 in casino, i watched a few video tutorials by pro gamblers, and as i’m trained in random outcomes in general, i have realized a few errors. but keep in mind that i’ve been looking into the rules and possibilities to beat the game in total of a few hours only, so i may be wrong.

as the table edge of blackjack is normally around 2%, and by applying some basic rules can even be as low as 0,5%, way less than on roulette, i realized that i could make money by increasing and decreasing bets, depending on my total losses or wins. that i said to the other players the day i first played, joking that it’s an easy money playing there.

today, as of september 13th 2024 (friday by the way), i realized two more things about the game.

first

as the casino/house/table has a big part of the edge on blackjack because you lose your bets even if both you and the table go bust — it’s because you play first — simply never go bust by never taking another card when your hard total is 12 or more. that would level the chances, or at least would decrease the table edge a lot. i have no idea why pro gamblers haven’t realized that.. or maybe they’re keeping it to themselves.

[ added 240914 : by now i found videos where pro blackjack gamblers explain this strategy and why mathematically it’s not a good idea, so i make a correction here. the “no bust strategy” could perhaps be better related to dealer’s open card — i must think about the best way to decide when to take another card and when not to. the claims made by pro gamblers aren’t convincing enough at this point of my understanding. i’m still learning the basics, and i don’t blindly trust the advice of others, no matter how well established a rule might look. i think for myself, and i try to verify claims as much as i have the capacity for it. case in point — most of the “pro” roulette gamblers are teaching on the internet systems which are a mathematical nonsense, easy to prove on computer simulators — preferably using programs written by yourself, to avoid fraud — that these systems don’t work in a long run, regardless that a system may look logical to someone not familiar with random distribution of the outcomes on specific betting choices on roulette. ]

second

any version of the basic blackjack strategy chart cannot be correct because as a fixed chart it must be calculated with a certain amount of cards still out there to play. i assume the charts are calculated for a full shoe. each dealt card would change the chart, so in all the possible permutations out there you wouldn’t have enough matter in the visible universe to write the full chart. so, you don’t need to memorize a chart because any version of it cannot be correct.

as a conclusion, i think that i could make money on blackjack by simply increasing and decreasing bets in certain conditions, depending on my own cash flow and balance, with no need to count cards. there’s no need to sit at a table for long hours — i can join tables randomly and occasionally whenever i feel like having a good time there.

there’s a beautiful thing in the game of blackjack/21 — the variation of the bets placed by a player is baked into the rules of the game, so i can decide when to change my bets and when not to, without anyone realizing that i do it for mathematical reasons based on probability.

the exact conditions and amount of variation in bets will need to be calculated and tested, but i already have some intuition what should i do, coming from the experience which you can read about in the free book ..

https://old.rip/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/randomfluct2018freeshare-1.pdf

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https://old.rip/2024/03/23/my-books-free-download-repost/

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